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88 changes: 25 additions & 63 deletions Overview.md
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Expand Up @@ -6,110 +6,72 @@ Wolfhart Feldmeier - Jena University Hospital - [email protected]

## Dates and course organization

* Six weeks, two 2-hour lectures plus one 2-hour exercises session per week
* Four weeks, two 2-hour lectures plus one 2-hour exercise session per week

* Lectures on Monday and Friday, exercises on Wednesday

* Timetable

| Lecture | Date | Weekday | Time | Topic |
|:---------:|:------------:|:-------:|---------------|:----------------------------------|
| 1 | Dec 16, 2022 | Fri | 10:15 - 11:45 | Introduction |
| 2 | Jan 02, 2023 | Mon | 10:15 - 11:45 | Direct Sampling Methods |
| Ex 1 | Jan 04, 2023 | Wed | 10:15 - 11:45 | Exercises for lectures 1-2 |
| 3 | Jan 06, 2023 | Fri | 10:15 - 11:45 | Rejection & Importance Sampling |
| 4 | Jan 09, 2023 | Mon | 10:15 - 11:45 | Markov chains, MCMC |
| Ex 2 | Jan 11, 2023 | Wed | 10:15 - 11:45 | Exercises for lectures 3-4 |
| 5 | Jan 13, 2023 | Fri | 10:15 - 11:45 | The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm |
| 6 | Jan 16, 2023 | Mon | 10:15 - 11:45 | Gibbs sampling |
| Ex 3 | Jan 18, 2023 | Wed | 10:15 - 11:45 | Exercises for lectures 5-6 |
| 7 | Jan 20, 2023 | Fri | 10:15 - 11:45 | Hamiltonian Monte Carlo |
| 8 | Jan 23, 2023 | Mon | 10:15 - 11:45 | Practical aspects of HMC |
| Ex 4 | Jan 25, 2023 | Wed | 10:15 - 11:45 | Exercises for lectures 7-8 |
| 9 | Jan 27, 2023 | Fri | 10:15 - 11:45 | Slice sampling |
| 10 | Jan 30, 2023 | Mon | 10:15 - 11:45 | Practical aspects, Diagnostics |
| Ex 5 | Feb 01, 2023 | Wed | 10:15 - 11:45 | Exercises for lectures 9-10 |
| 11 | Feb 03, 2023 | Fri | 10:15 - 11:45 | TBA |
| 12 | Feb 06, 2023 | Mon | 10:15 - 11:45 | TBA |
| Ex 6 | Feb 08, 2023 | Wed | 10:15 - 11:45 | Exercises for lectures 11-12 |
| 13 | Feb 10, 2023 | Fri | 10:15 - 11:45 | TBA |
| Lecture | Date | Weekday | Time | Topic |
|:---------:|:------------:|:-------:|---------------|:---------------------------------------|
| 1 | Jan 15, 2024 | Mon | 10:15 - 11:45 | Introduction / Direct Sampling Methods |
| Ex 1 | Jan 17, 2024 | Wed | 10:15 - 11:45 | Exercises for lecture 1 |
| 2 | Jan 19, 2024 | Fri | 10:15 - 11:45 | Rejection & Importance Sampling |
| 3 | Jan 22, 2024 | Mon | 10:15 - 11:45 | Markov chains, MCMC |
| Ex 2 | Jan 24, 2024 | Wed | 10:15 - 11:45 | Exercises for lectures 2-3 |
| 4 | Jan 26, 2024 | Fri | 10:15 - 11:45 | The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm |
| 5 | Jan 19, 2024 | Mon | 10:15 - 11:45 | Gibbs sampling |
| Ex 3 | Jan 31, 2024 | Wed | 10:15 - 11:45 | Exercises for lectures 4-5 |
| 6 | Feb 02, 2024 | Fri | 10:15 - 11:45 | Hamiltonian Monte Carlo |
| 7 | Feb 05, 2024 | Mon | 10:15 - 11:45 | Hamiltonian Monte Calro II |
| Ex 4 | Feb 07, 2024 | Wed | 10:15 - 11:45 | Exercises for lectures 6-7 |
| 8 | Feb 09, 2024 | Fri | 10:15 - 11:45 | Practical aspects of HMC |

## Topics

### Lecture 1: Introduction
### Lecture 1: Introduction & Direct Sampling Methods

* Motivation
* Monte Carlo approximation
* An inefficient way of computing $\pi$

### Lecture 2: Direct Sampling Methods

* Can we beat the curse of dimensionality?
* Random number generation
* Direct sampling by variable transformation methods

### Lecture 3: Rejection and Importance Sampling
### Lecture 2: Rejection and Importance Sampling

* More direct sampling methods
* Rejection sampling
* Importance sampling

### Lecture 4: Markov chains
### Lecture 3: Markov chains

* Markov chains
* Some mathematical facts about Markov chains

### Lecture 5: The Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm
### Lecture 4: The Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm

* Fundamental theorem of Markov chains
* Metropolis-Hastings algorithm

### Lecture 6: Gibbs sampling
### Lecture 5: Gibbs sampling

* Recap: Metropolis-Hastings algorithm
* Combining Markov chains
* Gibbs sampling

### Lecture 6: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

* Auxiliary variable methods
* Hamiltonian Monte Carlo I

### Lecture 7: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

* Recap: MCMC + Gibbs Sampling
* More on auxiliary variable methods
* Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
* Hamiltonian Monte Carlo II

### Lecture 8: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Practical Issues

* Hamiltonian Monte Carlo continued
* Practical Issues (convergence, diagnostic checks)

### Lecture 9: Slice sampling

* General slice sampling
* Neal's bracketing method

#### Lecture 10: Practical Aspects of MCMC

* Convergence, diagnostic checks

### Lectures 11-13: TBA

#### Possible topics

* Annealed Importance Sampling
* Nested Sampling
* Parallel Tempering / Replica-exchange Monte Carlo
* Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)
* Graphical models
* Ising model
* Simulator models
* Stochastic differential equation & Langevin dynamics
* Bridge sampling, thermodynamic integration
* Partition function estimation
* Intractable models
* Exchange algorithm
* Adaptive Monte Carlo methods
* Wang-Landau
* Exact sampling: coupling from the past

# Literature

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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion README.md
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# Probabilistic Inference

This repository contains lecture materials for the Probabilistic Inference lecture (currently WS 22/23) at Uni Jena.
This repository contains lecture materials for the Probabilistic Inference lecture (currently WS 23/24) at Uni Jena.

For an overview over the lecture, have a look at [Overview.md](Overview.md)

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