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Expt/regularization of parameters #157

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merged 7 commits into from
Jan 10, 2025

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L-M-Sherlock
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@L-M-Sherlock L-M-Sherlock added the enhancement New feature or request label Jan 2, 2025
@L-M-Sherlock L-M-Sherlock requested a review from Expertium January 2, 2025 10:28
@Expertium
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Is epoch_len the number of reviews?

@L-M-Sherlock
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Is epoch_len the number of reviews?

Yep. It's the number of reviews used for training.

@Expertium
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Alright. I'd like to see you benchmark this on 1000-2000 collections with 3-5 different gammas.

@L-M-Sherlock
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L-M-Sherlock commented Jan 3, 2025

Model: FSRS-5-gamma_0.01-dev
Total number of users: 2000
Total number of reviews: 67983040
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_0.01-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3416±0.1556
FSRS-5-gamma_0.01-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0540±0.0336
FSRS-5-gamma_0.01-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7003±0.0853

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_0.01-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3601±0.1684
FSRS-5-gamma_0.01-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0712±0.0451
FSRS-5-gamma_0.01-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6977±0.0926

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_0.01-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3624±0.1708
FSRS-5-gamma_0.01-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0737±0.0465
FSRS-5-gamma_0.01-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6970±0.0945

parameters: [0.41615, 1.1839, 3.02795, 15.5209, 7.1581, 0.5334, 1.79505, 0.01005, 1.5129, 0.134, 1.005, 1.9189, 0.0993, 0.2974, 2.3406, 0.2315, 2.991, 0.44235, 0.61745]

Model: FSRS-5-gamma_0.10-dev
Total number of users: 2000
Total number of reviews: 67983040
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_0.10-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3416±0.1556
FSRS-5-gamma_0.10-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0540±0.0336
FSRS-5-gamma_0.10-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7005±0.0850

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_0.10-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3601±0.1684
FSRS-5-gamma_0.10-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0712±0.0451
FSRS-5-gamma_0.10-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6977±0.0926

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_0.10-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3624±0.1708
FSRS-5-gamma_0.10-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0737±0.0465
FSRS-5-gamma_0.10-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6971±0.0945

parameters: [0.41235, 1.1839, 3.0309, 15.54545, 7.1587, 0.5334, 1.79505, 0.01005, 1.5129, 0.1341, 1.005, 1.9189, 0.0992, 0.2974, 2.33975, 0.2315, 2.991, 0.44225, 0.6174]

Model: FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev
Total number of users: 2000
Total number of reviews: 67983040
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3416±0.1556
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0540±0.0336
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7002±0.0857

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3601±0.1684
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0712±0.0451
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6977±0.0926

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3624±0.1708
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0737±0.0465
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6970±0.0945

parameters: [0.4118, 1.1839, 3.0221, 15.6088, 7.1587, 0.53345, 1.7951, 0.01005, 1.51275, 0.1341, 1.005, 1.9189, 0.09965, 0.29745, 2.33855, 0.2315, 2.991, 0.44225, 0.6174]

Model: FSRS-5-gamma_10.00-dev
Total number of users: 2000
Total number of reviews: 67983040
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_10.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3416±0.1556
FSRS-5-gamma_10.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0540±0.0336
FSRS-5-gamma_10.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7002±0.0857

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_10.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3601±0.1684
FSRS-5-gamma_10.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0712±0.0451
FSRS-5-gamma_10.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6977±0.0926

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_10.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3624±0.1708
FSRS-5-gamma_10.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0737±0.0465
FSRS-5-gamma_10.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6970±0.0945

parameters: [0.4104, 1.1839, 3.02215, 15.612, 7.15885, 0.53335, 1.7951, 0.0103, 1.51285, 0.13415, 1.0048, 1.9192, 0.1008, 0.2974, 2.33585, 0.2315, 2.98995, 0.44245, 0.6174]

Model: FSRS-5-gamma_100.00-dev
Total number of users: 2000
Total number of reviews: 67983040
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_100.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3416±0.1556
FSRS-5-gamma_100.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0540±0.0336
FSRS-5-gamma_100.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7014±0.0819

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_100.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3601±0.1684
FSRS-5-gamma_100.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0712±0.0451
FSRS-5-gamma_100.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6979±0.0922

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_100.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3624±0.1708
FSRS-5-gamma_100.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0737±0.0465
FSRS-5-gamma_100.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6972±0.0942

parameters: [0.41055, 1.1839, 3.0224, 15.6123, 7.1589, 0.53275, 1.79515, 0.01105, 1.51205, 0.1339, 1.00515, 1.919, 0.10365, 0.298, 2.3264, 0.23145, 2.9898, 0.443, 0.6168]

Model: FSRS-5-gamma_1000.00-dev
Total number of users: 2000
Total number of reviews: 67983040
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_1000.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3416±0.1556
FSRS-5-gamma_1000.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0540±0.0336
FSRS-5-gamma_1000.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7016±0.0815

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_1000.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3600±0.1683
FSRS-5-gamma_1000.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0712±0.0451
FSRS-5-gamma_1000.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6981±0.0918

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_1000.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3624±0.1707
FSRS-5-gamma_1000.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0737±0.0464
FSRS-5-gamma_1000.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6974±0.0938

parameters: [0.41085, 1.1839, 3.04125, 15.59785, 7.1625, 0.53125, 1.7985, 0.0129, 1.5109, 0.1325, 1.00235, 1.92125, 0.11, 0.29695, 2.30915, 0.23065, 2.9898, 0.44485, 0.61625]

Model: FSRS-5-gamma_10000.00-dev
Total number of users: 2000
Total number of reviews: 67983040
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_10000.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3415±0.1555
FSRS-5-gamma_10000.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0540±0.0336
FSRS-5-gamma_10000.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7015±0.0817

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_10000.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3597±0.1681
FSRS-5-gamma_10000.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0712±0.0449
FSRS-5-gamma_10000.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6985±0.0907

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_10000.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3621±0.1705
FSRS-5-gamma_10000.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0737±0.0462
FSRS-5-gamma_10000.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6978±0.0926

parameters: [0.4063, 1.1839, 3.05495, 15.68625, 7.1639, 0.5281, 1.778, 0.0154, 1.51345, 0.12735, 1.0025, 1.9261, 0.1121, 0.2961, 2.2746, 0.23125, 2.9898, 0.4555, 0.6253]

Model: FSRS-5-gamma_100000.00-dev
Total number of users: 2000
Total number of reviews: 67983040
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_100000.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3415±0.1554
FSRS-5-gamma_100000.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0542±0.0334
FSRS-5-gamma_100000.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7026±0.0823

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_100000.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3600±0.1680
FSRS-5-gamma_100000.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0716±0.0444
FSRS-5-gamma_100000.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6979±0.0906

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_100000.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3623±0.1704
FSRS-5-gamma_100000.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0741±0.0457
FSRS-5-gamma_100000.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6973±0.0924

parameters: [0.4021, 1.1839, 3.14125, 15.6908, 7.19365, 0.53505, 1.53665, 0.02045, 1.5157, 0.1201, 1.0073, 1.9361, 0.11, 0.2935, 2.2695, 0.2315, 2.9898, 0.49815, 0.65845]

Model: FSRS-5
Total number of users: 2000
Total number of reviews: 67983040
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5 LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3416±0.1556
FSRS-5 RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0540±0.0336
FSRS-5 AUC (mean±std): 0.7003±0.0854

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5 LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3601±0.1684
FSRS-5 RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0712±0.0451
FSRS-5 AUC (mean±std): 0.6977±0.0927

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5 LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3625±0.1708
FSRS-5 RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0737±0.0465
FSRS-5 AUC (mean±std): 0.6970±0.0946

parameters: [0.42615, 1.1438, 3.01335, 15.49285, 7.1581, 0.5334, 1.7946, 0.01005, 1.5133, 0.13395, 1.00545, 1.91875, 0.0996, 0.2974, 2.3391, 0.2315, 2.991, 0.4431, 0.6176]

@Expertium
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So, no significant impact? Weird. Do a few more with even larger gammas.

@L-M-Sherlock
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The tendency shows that large gamma makes the model worse.

@Expertium
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Hm. How about trying it only on collections with <1000 reviews?
Also, please don't forget about this.

@Expertium
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Expertium commented Jan 6, 2025

One more thing: aside from the weighted mean, add the 99th percentile for logloss and RMSE, like this:
round(np.percentile(metrics, 99), 4)

I want to see how much regularization helps in the worst cases.

@L-M-Sherlock
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L-M-Sherlock commented Jan 7, 2025

Hm. How about trying it only on collections with <1000 reviews?

The LogLoss is improved but the RMSE(bins) is worse on average.

Model: FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev
Total number of users: 180
Total number of reviews: 126845
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.4327±0.2088
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.1299±0.0663
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6663±0.1312

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.4283±0.2135
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.1313±0.0683
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6649±0.1326

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.4251±0.2152
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.1313±0.0687
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.6635±0.1353

LogLoss 99%: 0.9234
RMSE(bins) 99%: 0.371

parameters: [0.5095, 1.22565, 4.55875, 15.62145, 7.2025, 0.52985, 1.46595, 0.001, 1.5335, 0.1192, 1.0119, 1.9394, 0.11615, 0.2961, 2.267, 0.2315, 2.9898, 0.44195, 0.65485]

Model: FSRS-5
Total number of users: 180
Total number of reviews: 126845
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5 LogLoss (mean±std): 0.4343±0.2107
FSRS-5 RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.1296±0.0671
FSRS-5 AUC (mean±std): 0.6649±0.1327

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5 LogLoss (mean±std): 0.4298±0.2154
FSRS-5 RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.1310±0.0692
FSRS-5 AUC (mean±std): 0.6633±0.1342

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5 LogLoss (mean±std): 0.4265±0.2172
FSRS-5 RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.1310±0.0697
FSRS-5 AUC (mean±std): 0.6618±0.1368

LogLoss 99%: 0.9274
RMSE(bins) 99%: 0.3727

parameters: [0.50895, 1.226, 4.5592, 15.6208, 7.23555, 0.5016, 1.45385, 0.0274, 1.5285, 0.1192, 1.0062, 1.9574, 0.093, 0.30925, 2.2725, 0.24495, 2.9898, 0.4214, 0.6488]

Here is the result on all collections:

Model: FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev
Total number of users: 9999
Total number of reviews: 349923850
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3273±0.1524
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0518±0.0332
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7025±0.0767

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3527±0.1692
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0712±0.0460
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7019±0.0868

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3560±0.1717
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0741±0.0477
FSRS-5-gamma_1.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7011±0.0889

LogLoss 99%: 0.7382
RMSE(bins) 99%: 0.2407
parameters: [0.4292, 1.16, 3.1846, 15.8111, 7.1677, 0.5443, 1.7413, 0.0071, 1.5212, 0.1287, 1.0072, 1.9285, 0.107, 0.2962, 2.2848, 0.2306, 2.9898, 0.4551, 0.641]

Model: FSRS-5
Total number of users: 9999
Total number of reviews: 349923850
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5 LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3276±0.1526
FSRS-5 RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0518±0.0333
FSRS-5 AUC (mean±std): 0.7010±0.0786

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5 LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3534±0.1696
FSRS-5 RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0713±0.0462
FSRS-5 AUC (mean±std): 0.6995±0.0887

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5 LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3568±0.1721
FSRS-5 RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0742±0.0479
FSRS-5 AUC (mean±std): 0.6986±0.0908

LogLoss 99%: 0.7403
RMSE(bins) 99%: 0.2407
parameters: [0.4299, 1.162, 3.1897, 15.8179, 7.1441, 0.5397, 1.7835, 0.0104, 1.5175, 0.1351, 1.0064, 1.9183, 0.1007, 0.3016, 2.3446, 0.2315, 3.0117, 0.4463, 0.635]

In my opinion, it's OK to merge it because it improves log loss and AUC at least without increasing RMSE(bins).

@Expertium
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Please try more gammas first.

@user1823
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user1823 commented Jan 7, 2025

What's the purpose of this?

Wouldn't regularization just prevent users with small decks (presets) from generating the parameters that are most optimal for them?

@Expertium
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Perhaps for users with small collections staying close to default parameters is actually more optimal due to high amounts of random noise isn such colelctions.
But so far we don't see an improvement. Jarrett didn't do statistical significance tests, and I wouldn't be surprised if these tiny differences in his comment above are not statistically significant.

@user1823
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user1823 commented Jan 7, 2025

One disadvantage is that if I split a deck into two (clearly knowing that they would benefit from having different parameters), the new decks would be less likely to show that improvement in the RMSE because the smaller deck size will decrease the amount of deviation that is permitted from the default parameters.

@user1823
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user1823 commented Jan 7, 2025

Jarrett didn't do statistical significance tests

For this particular change, I think that it would be better to first split the database into small and large collections (based on some arbitrary cutoff) and then perform statistical significance tests on both groups separately.

@L-M-Sherlock
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Wouldn't regularization just prevent users with small decks (presets) from generating the parameters that are most optimal for them?

In small sample size, it's high likely to overfit the data, which weaken the model's ability to generalize. Regularization could increase generalization in this case.

@L-M-Sherlock
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L-M-Sherlock commented Jan 8, 2025

Please try more gammas first.

Model: FSRS-5-gamma_2.00-dev
Total number of users: 9999
Total number of reviews: 349923850
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_2.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3272±0.1524
FSRS-5-gamma_2.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0518±0.0332
FSRS-5-gamma_2.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7027±0.0764

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_2.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3525±0.1690
FSRS-5-gamma_2.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0713±0.0458
FSRS-5-gamma_2.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7024±0.0864

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_2.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3558±0.1714
FSRS-5-gamma_2.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0742±0.0475
FSRS-5-gamma_2.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7016±0.0885

LogLoss 99%: 0.7324
RMSE(bins) 99%: 0.2408
parameters: [0.4269, 1.1547, 3.1718, 15.8019, 7.1763, 0.5479, 1.7058, 0.0064, 1.5238, 0.1242, 1.0076, 1.9346, 0.1067, 0.2956, 2.2775, 0.2309, 2.9898, 0.4626, 0.6474]
Model: FSRS-5-gamma_0.50-dev
Total number of users: 9999
Total number of reviews: 349923850
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_0.50-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3274±0.1525
FSRS-5-gamma_0.50-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0517±0.0333
FSRS-5-gamma_0.50-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7023±0.0768

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_0.50-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3529±0.1693
FSRS-5-gamma_0.50-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0712±0.0461
FSRS-5-gamma_0.50-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7013±0.0872

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_0.50-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3563±0.1718
FSRS-5-gamma_0.50-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0741±0.0478
FSRS-5-gamma_0.50-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7004±0.0893

LogLoss 99%: 0.7379
RMSE(bins) 99%: 0.2411
parameters: [0.4293, 1.161, 3.1858, 15.8178, 7.1603, 0.5421, 1.7636, 0.0082, 1.5195, 0.1312, 1.0068, 1.9229, 0.1077, 0.298, 2.2941, 0.2304, 2.9898, 0.4503, 0.6383]

In summary:

Gamma RMSE(bins) (mean±std) LogLoss (mean±std) AUC (mean±std)
0.00 (FSRS-5) 0.0742±0.0479 0.3568±0.1721 0.6986±0.0908
0.50 0.0741±0.0478 0.3563±0.1718 0.7004±0.0893
1.00 0.0741±0.0477 0.3560±0.1717 0.7011±0.0889
2.00 0.0742±0.0475 0.3558±0.1714 0.7016±0.0885

@Expertium
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Expertium commented Jan 8, 2025

Try gammas even higher than 2.0

@L-M-Sherlock
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Model: FSRS-5-gamma_4.00-dev
Total number of users: 9999
Total number of reviews: 349923850
Weighted average by reviews:
FSRS-5-gamma_4.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3272±0.1523
FSRS-5-gamma_4.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0519±0.0331
FSRS-5-gamma_4.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7027±0.0762

Weighted average by log(reviews):
FSRS-5-gamma_4.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3525±0.1688
FSRS-5-gamma_4.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0715±0.0457
FSRS-5-gamma_4.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7026±0.0860

Weighted average by users:
FSRS-5-gamma_4.00-dev LogLoss (mean±std): 0.3558±0.1712
FSRS-5-gamma_4.00-dev RMSE(bins) (mean±std): 0.0744±0.0474
FSRS-5-gamma_4.00-dev AUC (mean±std): 0.7018±0.0881

LogLoss 99%: 0.7335
RMSE(bins) 99%: 0.2417
parameters: [0.4236, 1.1517, 3.1662, 15.7944, 7.1838, 0.549, 1.6498, 0.0057, 1.5243, 0.1216, 1.0063, 1.9383, 0.1074, 0.2943, 2.2731, 0.2313, 2.9898, 0.4747, 0.6547]

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Alright, let's use gamma=2 then

@L-M-Sherlock L-M-Sherlock added this pull request to the merge queue Jan 10, 2025
Merged via the queue into main with commit a2bbc6b Jan 10, 2025
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@L-M-Sherlock L-M-Sherlock deleted the Expt/regularization-of-parameters branch January 10, 2025 02:02
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3 participants